Turkey is emerging as a powerhouse in the Eastern Mediterranean: an economic power that has greater influence in the region and that promotes itself as a “model Muslim democracy”. However, the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is worried about a problem that many Western nations are used to: a declining fertility rate and demographic problems in the medium future.
As the International Business Times reports, rising household incomes, greater access to education for women and increased use of birth control has seen the Turkish fertility rate steadily decline since the 1990s.
“Indeed, Dr. Ismet Koç, a demographer at Hacettepe University in Ankara, warned that Turkey’s fertility rate is now below 2.1, the replacement level, which suggests the population will eventually decline. The fertility level in more prosperous western Turkey is now about 1.5 — roughly the same as in Western Europe.”
But that is not the end of the story. While Turkey’s fertility rate as a whole is falling, the Kurdish minority of Turkey (currently 15 per cent of the population) has such a high birth rate that some (not the least of which is Prime Minister Erdogan) believe that they could become the majority in Turkey within two generations:
“According to Turkish government statistics, the average Kurdish woman in Turkey gives birth to about four children, more than double the rate for other Turkish mothers.
Thus, Turkey is facing a demographic time-bomb – Kurds, who tend to be concentrated in the country’s impoverished southeast and are generally poorer and less educated, could conceivably outnumber Turks within about 30 years should present patterns persist.
Erdogan seems to be certain this will happen.
If we continue the existing trend, [the year] 2038 will mark disaster for us, Erdogan warned in May 2010.”
Why, if the Kurds were to become a majority in 2038, would it be such a “disaster” according to Erdogan? Kurds have had a long history of “discrimination, deprivation, even state-sponsored violence” throughout the history of Turkey and many seek a separate homeland in the southeast of current Turkish borders. Thus, it is not surprising that Kurds represent a contentious theme in Turkish politics.
“For many years, it was, in fact, illegal for Kurds to speak their own language, use Kurdish names, play Kurdish music, etc. – part of a comprehensive attempt by Ankara to wipe out the separate ethnic identity of the Kurds. Indeed, some Turks regarded Kurds simply as ‘Mountain Turks.’
The Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), a Marxist militant movement which Turkey, the European Union and the U.S. brand as a terrorist group, has fought for a separatist nation for decades. The PKK’s periodic conflicts with the Turkish military have cost tens of thousands of lives on both sides – seemingly with no resolution in sight.”
How likely is it that Erdogan’s fears will be realised? According to Dr. Tino Sanandaji, a PhD in Public Policy at the University of Chicago who does research on demographic change and its link to policy, it is “impossible” that Kurds will be a majority in 2038: “In the 1930s, the Kurds constituted about 9 per cent of the population of Turkey, and though they had higher birth rates than the Turks it still took until the 1990s until they reached the 18 per cent level.”
Whatever the accuracy of the predictions, the fears are real and the Prime Minister is calling on Turks to do their patriotic duty and have more children so that the “disaster” of a Kurdish majority will not occur. Some however, believe that he is barking at the moon for all the good that his calls for more children will have. Cem Behar, an economics professor at the Istanbul’s Boazici University argued that:
“It’s clear that Turkey is going to face a decline in the growth rate of its population. Yet you cannot address such an issue by telling people to have more children…There is no family policy in Turkey. And I don’t think anyone is going to have more children just because [Erdogan] told them to do so. If the government really wants to promote having more children, it needs to prepare the necessary conditions for it, such as lowering taxes for those families or strengthening pre-school education.”
Even that may not be enough. Perhaps Kurds want to have more children than their Turkish neighbours…
Both the rise of Islamophobia and the rise of Islamism have the same source: non-Muslims not knowing Arabic. If most non-Muslims would know Arabic, like most non-Muslims do know English, non-Muslims would be able to sort out the threatening Muslims(i.e. Islamists) from the non-threatening Muslims. Also, if most non-Muslims would have known Arabic, it would have been very hard for Islamists to take power. For obvious reasons, defeating or even exterminating ALL Muslims would make knowing Arabic even more necessary. So ALL people will have to learn Arabic anyway.
Note: Geert Wilders and Erdoğan agree that moderate Islam does not exist.
On March 21 the Turkish army launched itself into Syria using terrorist groups as infantry. The goal is to capture areas of the Syrian coast, and to threaten Latakia and the ancient Armenian veterans in Kessab suddenly turned into refugees.
Syria asked for a political stand by Iran demanding they openly condemn Turkey. Yet Iran was completely silent. Iran’s excuse to help its Shiite partner Bashar al-Assad was that this would threaten Iran’s private diplomatic efforts.
Turkey is still taking advantage of such silent support, not only from Iran, but also it’s NATO allies. Turkey continues to organize and support bands of terrorists from Chechens, Turkmen and other factions to coordinate military offensive operations against the Syrian army on several fronts in Aleppo under the mission title of “Amputating the Unbelievers”.
The Turkish plan is this: waging battles against the Syrian military on the northern front has made it extremely difficult for the Syrian regime; the continual battles of hit and run will threaten the achievements of the Syrian army in the north and threaten the whole of Aleppo.
Aleppo is indispensable for the completion of Bashar’s presidential elections, which is key for Bashar’s political victory in Syria.
In the northeastern parts of Syria terrorists continue to organize the theft of oil to be shipped towards Turkey and sold cheaply. This funds the terrorist organizations including the notorious ISIS (Da’ish). All this banditry under the cover of a European decision allowing for the “Syrian opposition” to export stolen oil.
Turkey, which has been given the green light by the U.S. and funding by Qatar; and the objectives are clear: to prevent the Syrian regime to achieve a political victory, and to continue looting Syria and expand the Ottoman sphere of occupation and annexation. The end results will be the slaughter of the Armenians.
All this is happening amid the silence of Iran raises an eyebrow in Damascus, which has become, in the last month, more and more convinced that the so-called “secret pressures diplomacy” on the Turks, are not feasible; Turkey, today has become the owner of the global war and is backed politically by NATO.
To Tehran Turkey is an essential partner in the Islamic awakening and it does not want a clash with it, even if it costs it secular Syria. Any Iranian interference will complicate the situation and brings strong reaction from the Sunni Muslims and Arab nationalists.
The so-called “Iran experts” and “Turkey experts” and all the U.S. government officials with its propaganda machine says that Iran is growing increasingly unstable and that Erdogan was on his way out were all wrong. They see things from an economic prism that is void of the ideological dynamo, which is truly the mover and shaker in the region.
Iran and Turkey’s influence can be felt throughout the Muslim world.
The lesson America cannot get a grip on regarding the Middle East is that you can’t have voids and yes, its all about religion, stupid.
The destruction of Iraq’s regime was not only satisfying to Iran but it also opened the door to a dramatic shift in Iran’s geopolitical influence. Iraq now has a Shiite regime. The Iranians anticipated the American move and played its chess piece by creating pro-Iranian elements using the Iraqi Shiites and with the United States engaged in a war against Sunni insurgents, the Shia, already a majority, moved to fill the void.
Not only did the United States loose its bishops, but they also added a major check by Iran to its Middle East queen: Saudi Arabia.
Tehran now has a check on Mecca and Bashar al-Assad’s desperate need of Iranian support simply strengthened Tehran’s hand. Now that Tehran made a deal to keep its nuclear program (as we predicted), it gave the Iranians a powerful bargaining chip and diverted U.S. and Israeli attention from the growing Iranian sphere of influence.
Now the U.S. is attempting to move a few pawns to save the situation by threatening Syria but is confused to see the real results. We were correct all along: The U.S. war on Syria was not to bring freedom to the Syrian people but was to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government in order to target Iran. While the U.S. could get Syria, the geo-political repercussions will not be felt until way later when Turkey rules Syria instead of Iran.
Iran will pay heavily geo-politically courting with Turkey for the sake of an Islamic revival to defeat Israel. The victor geo-politically will be Turkey (the Leopard) over Iran (the Bear) especially since the West will welcome Turkey’s Sufist brand of Islam over Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabism.
Today Saudi Arabia is staggering worried about it’s future and the queen in the long-run will be toast, especially now that the United States is flush with oil, the influence of Saudi Arabia in Washington has waned considerably. The U.S. is attempting reconciliation with Iran and the Saudi attempts to block such reconciliation will be in vain as it was last year.
With the Muslim Brotherhood more allied with the Turkish Ottoman roots, Turkey can advance into Egypt (Daniel 11) by aiding the Muslim Brotherhood and into Tunisia and Libya. With a war on Wahhabism, this next brand of Turkish Islam will be the most deceptive of its kind.
One issue that is very crucial to understand is that while Turkey is Sunni, it’s brand of Islam is different from the Wahhabist which is vehemently anti-Shiite. Turkey has great reverence to Ali, Hassan and Hussein, the Shiite historic and religious martyrs and icons. I have known this for decades. When one looks into the Hagia Sophia, or the silver domed mosque (Al-Masjid Al-Qibali) on the Temple Mount, both decorated by the Sunni Muslim Ottomans, they would see Ali, Hassan and Hussein etched in gold which is pleasing to Shiites.
This factor makes it easier for Turkey to be a temporary unifier between Sunnis and Shiites, which in the end will be detrimental and will prove that the U.S. made the wrong move. The Iranian revolutionary leaders are also Azeri Turks and have kinship with the Ottomans. The Turks also do not hold the same animosity towards Shiite ideology, as do Sunni Arabs. But when it comes to the Arabs, Turkey holds a historic long memory against Saudi Arabia’s aid to oust the Ottomans during the Sharif Hussein revolt (1916-1918). If in doubt just read the works of Lawrence of Arabia and see how the Turks shelled Mecca and crushed the Black Stone.
Iran can’t afford loosing its relationship with Turkey. Turkey and Iran have a common interest in preventing an independent Kurdish nation. The more the United States supports the Iraqi Kurds there will be a greater danger of an Iranian-Turkish alliance, which is what we project, will happen.
Iran and Turkey are locked into an alliance. Erdoğan even sacrificed Fethullah Gülen on the altar of Iranian-Turkish unity and it even clashed with Israel over several issues’ like the Gaza Flotilla and Erodgan’s foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s made much effort to improve ties with Iran. We have been addressing Turkey for two decades, way back when Turkey was an ally of Israel; we were laughed at when we said that the two would become mortal enemies.
The Ezekiel 38 program is on course, Gog is a leader from Turkey who unites with Persia (Iran), Libya and Egypt. We say Egypt because it is clear that there is a league (Ezekiel 30:8). Most students isolate Ezekiel 38 ignoring that the whole theme of Ezekiel’s prophecy stems from Ezekiel 28 to Ezekiel 39. All this needs to be viewed in whole. Unfortunately, these do not like to read the entire context and seem to be satisfied to only reading one chapter—Ezekiel 38.
In our view, ahistoricals should have no voice in the Prophecy circles. For Putin to be this predicted “Gog,” Turkey must willingly submit to Russia. Russia and Turkey are two rivals who have warred against each other from time immemorial. For anyone who still doubts us that Putin can never be Gog, please read our 6 part series [here].
Syria is Iran’s closest ally. Assad’s downfall would deal a major blow to Iran’s regional ambitions and leave Tehran ever more isolated, but Iran has no choice, it needs a major Islamist ally and it knows that Turkey is rising. Now with the U.S. supporting Turkey, and Iran’s desire to lift the U.S. ban, it has no choice but to sacrifice its bishop in Syria.
But Syria is not only an ally of Iran it also has strong ties with Russia who is busy in Crimea. This is why Turkey ceased the moment and is moving into Syria. As far as the future goes, many in the U.S. fear the Russian sphere of influence, especially that it strengthened Iran. The Prophecy arena is replete with a Russia-phobia and a Russian-Iranian alliance that is based on error. Russia is Christian Orthodox and Iran is Islamist.
But what needs to be understood are the issues at hand; first, Russia was fighting Sunnis in the northern Caucasus and feared the strengthening of radical Sunnis anywhere, but particularly in the larger Sunni-dominated republics in Russia. [1] Second, an Iranian sphere of influence would threaten Saudi Arabia and would compel the United States to re-engage in the region to protect Saudi Arabia and by that will also be inclined to defend Israel. After all, the Americans remain obsessed with the Islamic world.
Russia is simply creating a strategic crisis for the United States who fears Iran more than the Russians who are buffered from Iran by the Sunni Caucasus states. The Russians do not really have an interest to attack Israel as many in the Prophecy mania proclaim. No serious analyst would see any reason for Russia to invade Israel, and neither does Russia want the Iranians to gain nuclear weapons. What they do want is an extended conflict in Iraq, extended tension between Iran and the United States, and they wouldn’t much mind if the United States went to war with Iran as well. [2]
Turkey has a vested interest in being viewed as the stabilizing agent in the region and no longer regards the United States as a stabilizing force, and it sees Europe as a collective entity and individual nations as both hostile and impotent. It views the Russians as a long-term threat to its interests and sees Russia’s potential return to Turkey’s frontier as a long-term challenge. [3] Considering the future of the region, the only power in a position to assert its consistent presence is as we have been saying for two decades is Islamist Turkey. [4]
Turkey is ready to revisit its relations with Iran and their competition with Iran for regional dominance is futile. The leaderships of both nations have come to realize that striving to secure an undisputed leadership in the Middle East was pointless. [5] Iran’s ambitions in the region will then succumb to Turkish dominance. The primary reason being that the Sunni-Shiite strife in the region would eventually acquire a content conforming to the geopolitical interests of the U.S. and despite Ankara’s insistence and is why Washington refrained from resorting to plans of total regime dismantling in Syria. [6]
Most do not understand U.S. policy in the region and why the U.S. Administration is behind the Sunni-Shia divide. The U.S. needed a region equally treacherous both for Turkey and Iran. Current balance of forces between extremist religious groups prevents Turkey and Iran to feel comfortable, whereas Washington reaps geopolitical dividends from the situation. [7]
But this is a disastrous policy. From Reagan to Obama, such policies created monsters. When Reagan helped the Mujahideen in Afghanistan against Russia he aided in the creation of the Taliban. George Bush created chaos in Iraq and today Obama completed the mess by forcing the region into forming a new regional superpower—Turkey.
Soon, I estimate within a decade to a decade and a half (its only an estimation), we will see a Sultan emerge in Turkey, a Caliph and a Mahdi. They will argue that if Rome has a Vicar of Christ, why not for Islam a Vicar for Muhammad? In Islam, there is what is called Bai’at (allegiance). Whomever will lead this new movement, and in order to win the hearts of the Muslim world, must present himself as Caliph and a Caliph by Islamic law must be given allegiance (Bai’at) by all Muslims. They will give allegiance to him and say “who now is as strong as us, who now can make war with us?” They will demand that everyone put the banner of Islam on their foreheads and shoulders. That no one can buy or sell, unless they give allegiance to the new Sultan.
Comment: Hizb-ut-Tahrir is explicitly devoted to the formation of the Caliphate.
A Turkish imam named Fethullah Gulen has been living in the U.S. for over a decade. Many consider him to be western civilizatin’s most dangerous imam. That may be but right now, Turkey’s Prime Minister appears to be fighting off Gulen’s supporters, known as Gulenists.
Gulen: He’s emotional too.
A corruption scandal that appears to have set PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan in its sights, is being blamed on the Gulenists. One of those followers – President Abdullah Gul – is one such Gulenist, according to a 2009 cable revealed via Wikileaks:
…the political context for conversations about Gulen is complicated because President Gul is himself seen by almost all of our contacts as a Gulenist, while Prime Minister Erdogan is not. Indeed, some of our contacts have argued that Erdogan is so firmly outside the Gulen camp that Gulen loyalists view him as a liability.
In a piece by Alex Alexiev at National Review, the relationship between the Gulenists and Erdogan’s AKP Party is explained thusly:
Observers of the Turkish political scene have known for a long time that the Fethullah Gulen movement plays a crucial role as a reliable partner of the AKP in the steady Islamization of the country. It was also widely known in Turkey, though not in the West, that Gulen followers were a huge presence in the security organs, the justice system, and the police — according to U.S. diplomats, as early as 2006, 80 percent of senior police posts were filled by Gulen supporters. They played a dominant role in key Erdogan achievements, such as suppressing the military, curtailing freedom of speech, and brutally putting down the Gezi protests.
Those inclined to cheer on the Gulenists should hold their applause. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul have, for years, attempted to present a united front. Erdogan has a much harder time masking his intentions that does Gul, and by extension, Gulenists. Turkey’s president is much more politically savvy than Erdogan and if he truly is a Gulenist, he knows all about the imam’s chosen means for furthering that agenda – deception.
Muslim Brotherhood’s Mursi and Erdogan of Turkey in happier times.
Alexiev writes:
It (Gulenist movement) preaches a radical version of Islam and ultimately aims to destroy the secular order in Turkey and beyond. It is easy to see all of that if one goes behind the movement’s carefully cultivated façade, with its pious verbiage of interfaith dialogue, peace, and Islamic enlightenment, and looks directly into the writings of Gulen that inform his movement’s ideology.
Sound familiar? Furthermore, Gulen has a history of being extremly concerned about his movement’s agenda being revealed too soon because it would lead to disaster. In one of many speeches, he used metaphors that explained this. Erdogan, unlike Gul, has a much more difficult time keeping his goals hidden. In this regard, the Gulenist movement may see him as a threat.
Then there is the rough patch Erdogan’s Tukey has been through, which includes the ouster of Egypt’s Mohammed Mursi last year and a failure in Syria to see Bashar al-Assad’s removal. In this regard, Erdogan must be losing favor.
Gul has made a habit of playing his political calculus close to the vest. However, the blood in the water relative to how the corruption scandal could take down Erdogan, may be too enticing for Gul not to tip his hand.
Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul is a Gulenist.
Dilay Gundogan at Middle East Online explains how the schism between the two leaders is coming to the surface:
Amid this fray Gul, who had stayed mum on the issue for a long time, broke his silence and came to the defence of the judiciary. He countered Erdogan by saying that the judiciary should be free from government interference.
“The legislative and executive powers are in a way accountable through elections but the judicial system is in a different position. For them, independence and impartiality is much more important,” Gul said on television last week.
Perhaps this stance from Gul does more than anything else to reveal where his allegiances lie. By siding with the Gulenist-dominated judiciary, Gul is taking sides in a burgeoning political civil war. He is not taking the side of Erdogan.
oogenhand 